A United Ireland Plebiscite Should Not Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Warn

A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."