An Warning for Keir Starmer from His Personal Past: If You're Not Bold on Britain's EU Exit and Europe, His Labour Rivals Will Be.

Back in 2018, it took just eight words to electrify the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words met with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position and Closed Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document and Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.

But, far from concluding that this renders America an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost of 2018

All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an effort to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.