Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.