Just two months ago when the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. As the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
A tech journalist and digital strategist with over a decade of experience covering AI, cybersecurity, and startup ecosystems across Europe.